Russia at the Crossroads of 2015

Sergey Vorobiev is the President of Ward Howell, and founder and co-chair of a club of wealthy entrepreneurs which, nearly 17 years ago, attempted to document all possible development scenarios for Russia up to the current year. Here he is interviewed by Yuriy Solomonov, Editor-in-Chief of HG-Scenarios.

Source: Nezavisimaya gazeta

Sergey Iliech, as we know, out of the three scenarios documented, the worst prevailed…

Well, it's not the scenario itself that's the worst, but one of the worst possible paths that Russia could take. In the last three years we have also lived out the first and second scenarios. But, as we can see today, we are going down the third, or worst, path. We did not foresee or predict this, did not see it written in the stars. We wrote out three possible paths, taking into account economic, political, social, and other factors, conditions, situations, possible choices, etc.

In 1998, how did you, all very successful people, come up with this idea?

It was very simple. As you remember, the country defaulted. We gathered about ten people in one of the Troika Dialog offices to discuss how we could be excellent students of the capitalist economy, if the future was lost. We were all achieving something in our own businesses – and doing it by playing by the rules.

And just like that, the rules and our future disappeared. We got together twice, and investigated individually. And then Volodya Preobrazhensky said, “I have a few scenarios in progress, and even some developed. Let’s try to document the different possibilities for the future”… 

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